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Steel prices may stabilize and strengthen in the short term

On October 13, the reporter said in an interview that since October, the effect of a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy has gradually emerged, which has injected a strong impetus to boost "steel demand". It is expected that the overall market conditions of "Silver Ten" will be better than that of "Golden Nine". Market conditions, steel prices are expected to stabilize and strengthen in the short term.

Before the National Day on the 11th National Day, the fourth-quarter work promotion meeting to stabilize the economic market was held, and it was required to make good use of two important policy tools recently introduced: the first is to make good use of policy-based development financial tools to speed up the construction of infrastructure projects. The second is to make good use of policies such as special re-loans and financial discounts to accelerate the upgrading of equipment in the fields of manufacturing, service industries, and social services.

It is understood that at present, the second batch of 300 billion yuan infrastructure funds participated by three policy banks has been fully invested, and the 500 billion yuan special bond balance limit has also been "opened" a few days ago. According to the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council, the special debt balance limit must be issued before the end of October. This part of the funds will be used in the infrastructure field in the fourth quarter to bring continuous funds to infrastructure projects.

As a series of economic stabilization policies take effect, investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate is expected to accelerate. According to incomplete statistics, before the National Day, major projects were started and signed in many places across the country, with a total investment of 3,163.9 billion yuan. For example, on September 28, Anhui Province started 924 major projects with a total investment of 802.69 billion yuan; on the same day, Henan Province started 24 key water conservancy projects with a total investment of 24.8 billion yuan.

"At present, all parts of the country are grasping the golden period of construction and speeding up the construction of projects." Li Zhongshuang said that the national infrastructure construction is expected to usher in a "rush-up tide". Demand for construction steel such as wire rods has increased.

In terms of real estate, the implementation of the policy of "guaranteing the delivery of buildings" has increased the construction volume of real estate and the strength of "steel demand". Since July this year, nearly 30 provinces across the country have introduced measures to "guarantee the handover of buildings". At present, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, together with the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other relevant departments, has issued special measures to support the construction and delivery of residential projects that have been sold and are overdue and difficult to deliver by means of special loans from policy banks. Against this backdrop, real estate data is expected to rebound.

Recently, as the extreme high temperature weather gradually subsided, the production and sales of machinery, automobiles, home appliances and other manufacturing industries have improved, and production and sales have increased. In September, the manufacturing production index rose to 51.5%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to above the critical point. Li Zhongshuang predicts that in the fourth quarter, the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to strengthen.

Li Zhongshuang and other steel traders said that after entering October, environmental protection production restrictions in autumn and winter are expected to be strengthened. Coupled with the convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, environmental protection production restrictions will have an impact on the market supply, and the market supply pressure will be limited in the short term. Statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association show that in the first ten days of October, key steel enterprises produced a total of 21.0775 million tons of crude steel, 19.116 million tons of pig iron and 20.1712 million tons of steel. Among them, the daily output of crude steel reached 2,107,700 tons, down 1.11% from the previous month; the daily output of pig iron reached 1,911,600 tons, down 2.16% from the previous month; the daily output of steel reached 2,017,100 tons, down 9.19% from the previous month. Overall, supply is in contractionary territory. At the same time, the social inventory of five types of steel products in 21 cities across the country reached 9.03 million tons, an increase of 510,000 tons or 6.0% month-on-month, and the inventory rose for the first time after declining for 10 consecutive days; an increase of 1.15 million tons or 14.6% from the beginning of this year; It was 2.09 million tons less than the same period last year, down 18.8%.

From the perspective of cost, after the National Day holiday, the coke market is relatively strong, and coke companies in Hebei, Shandong and other places have successively raised coke prices, and the production cost of steel companies has further increased. At present, steel companies have a strong willingness to support prices when determining the ex-factory price of steel. Some large steelmakers' November flat and long product prices have been raised. Based on this, it is expected that the cost of purchasing steel products that will be put on the market in the later period will increase, which is also conducive to the stabilization and strengthening of steel prices.

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